Predictions and analysis
This is a short-term outlook on the S&P500 (SPX) following yesterday's Fed Rate Decision. The short-term pattern on the 4H time-frame is a Channel Up and is giving us some important developments. Even though yesterday's attempt to stay above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) failed, the index managed to stay on the Channel Up bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) and is...
Last time we looked at SPY (April 11, see chart below), we got what we wanted, a break below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) that met our exact bearish expectation which was a -5.93% decline, absolutely symmetrical with August 18 2023: As the subsequent rebound got rejected on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line on the chart above), the question is the following: Is...
SPX is heading to new all time high by May 21. Invalidated if breaks below Apr 19 low.
The video explains it all a lot better, but basically, we are sitting with higher highs and lower lows on the trend timeframes that brought us here (30m-4hr), otherwise known as the Pac-Man symbol. Trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract) 30m - 5083 Uptrend (4/25/2024) Higher High 1Hr - 5083 Uptrend (4/25/2024) Higher High 2Hr - 5131...
ES Trade Plan Inflection: 5095 Upper lvls: 5115 / 5127 / 5137 Aggressive Inflection: 5076 Lower lvls: 5052-5056 / 5030-5038 / 5005 NQ Trade Plan Inflection: 17628 Upper lvls: 17660 / 17776 / 17818-17838 / 17901-17937 Lower lvls: 17507 / 17356-17370 / 17283-17293 / 17163 SPX Pivot 5036 Stay Frosty!
1. Price swept a lot of low resistance lows with this bearish impulse, and created a new Swing Low. This is the External move. 2. Price retraced to the -FVG, a premium PD Array. This is an Internal Range Liquidity move. Expecting price to wick up past the PDH, but close inside the -FVG, and potentially end the retracement. Bearish PA should follow. Price is in...
Bearish, but expecting a short term bullish move. Price has reached the 4th standard deviation, swept the LRLR, then mitigated the +OB. The expectation now is an External -> Internal LQ move. Wait/watch for signs of reversal from the current poi. I enjoy any feedback or questions in the comment section. All opinions are welcome! LIKE or BOOST this post, if you...
The S&P500 is approaching the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) to test it as a Resistance for the first time after the April 15 bearish break-out. It has already broken above the Bearish Megaphone, the 4H RSI has formed a Channel Up similar to the price action's and so far this sequence of events is fairly identical to the previous correction of August 2023. That...
So again, I cashed out my trade just above 5000 as we fell last night following the Israel drone strike against Iran. Most of that dip appears to have resolved itself, at least for the moment, but those geopolitical issues will likely be crucial to the potential of a market fall in the coming days. I go into it in the video, but major Earnings are next week, and...
Yesterday market had a positive day after closing six consecutive down sessions. If traders can keep above yesterday's Close, we could see a positive session as well today. Level to watch: 5066 --- 5064 Reports to watch: PMI Composite Flash 9:45 AM EST New Home Sales 10:00 AM EST
The overnight range was the name of the game today. As mentioned earlier, we were looking for a potential break in either direction. After establishing the initial balance, we saw a test of the overnight session low (5019), which was successfully defended. Subsequently, buyers entered the market, leading to a push higher in $ES. This move broke the high of the...
S&P500 is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 37.601, MACD = -44.800, ADX = 58.528) as it touched the 1D MA100 on Friday after more than 5 months. This calls for a short term rebound at least as every previous corrective wave inside the multi month Channel Up that approached the 1D MA100, it rebounded to at least the 0.618 Fibonacci level. Following our...
If daily gap holds then upside targets *5021.5 then 5026.5-5037. For downside targets *4997-4991 and if that fails 4974 Daily Trend Tracker *DXY - Bullish - *VIX - Bearish - *US10Y - Bearish Follow Jbetrading on X for more in depth analysis across multiple asset classes.
At the end of last week, sellers confirmed weekly consolidation by closing below the previous week's low. From now on, bears have control over the price on the weekly timeframe. We should monitor the progression of weekly lows and highs to see when things start to shift, but until then, we should trust the sellers. It is also notable that if we look at the futures...
The S&P500 dipped into our turquoise Target Zone (coordinates: 5025 – 4933 points) with its recent setback. The low of the turquoise wave 4 may have already been reached, but another downward move back into the Zone is still possible. If the index even falls below the support at 4864 points, the magenta wave Alt.(2) will head down into our next Target Zone...
Liquidity Crisis may happen most of hedgefund did buying treasury bond and then treasury bond margin loan , so they made almost 50x leverage on bond market times over and over now only t-bill s gonna be recognized as collateral so t-bill market happend this method But NFP is too strong, FED didn't do Rate Cut now So t-bill is bubbled now, we are gonna kill...
Trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract) 30m - 5111 Uptrend (4/17/2024) Lower High 1Hr - 5220 Downtrend (4/12/2024) Lower Low 2Hr - 5203 Downtrend (4/12/2024) Lower Low 3Hr - 5197 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Lower Low 4Hr - 5197 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Lower Low 6Hr - 5250 Downtrend (4/2/2024) Higher Low 12Hr - 5204 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Higher...
Stocks are vulnerable to a 5% 'air-pocket drawdown' as greedy traders short volatility. Tuesday's stock-market pullback on February, 13 after a hot inflation report actually showed us something else about the market. It turns out that it did… an overcrowded short side of the options market which was reminiscent of the 2018 and 2020 'Volmageddon'...