Only possible outcomes to Israel-Hamas war are a single-state solution or total annihilation

The use of spectaculars has long been a tool used by militant groups to achieve their ends: consider the assassination of the Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo or the 9/11 attack on the Twin Towers in New York. The consequences of these spectaculars, in both cases, were horrendous, and far outweighed the immediate effects of the original atrocity. Closer to home the Brighton hotel bombing of 1984 was also regarded by the IRA as a major propaganda success even though it failed in its primary objective of murdering the British prime minister Margaret Thatcher.

The murderous Hamas incursion into Israel on October 7th would seem to fit neatly into this same category. Sadly, it appears to have been successful in meeting most, if not all, of its primary objectives. The outrage generated in Israel as a result of the large number of civilians killed or taken hostage has provoked a totally disproportionate reaction from the Israeli authorities, which is precisely what Hamas must have been hoping for.

The entire basis of the peace process initiated in Oslo is now hanging by a thread. Much of the world-wide sympathy generated for Israel as a result of the October 7th atrocity has already dissipated. The blatant disregard by Israeli forces for the rules of war and in particular for international humanitarian law has largely undermined whatever portion of the moral high ground that had been claimed – if only momentarily – by Israel in the wake of the attack on its own citizens.

The worst possible outcome for all concerned at this stage of the conflict would be for Israel to proceed with its stated intention of invading the Gaza Strip. The terrible destruction and loss of life which has been unleashed by Israel’s ferocious bombardment of Gaza would only be intensified manyfold by such an action. The bitterness and hatred on the part of the Palestinians – and, indeed, the entire Arab world – would increase incrementally, and it is doubtful that any real military or physical objectives would be gained by Israel. Indeed, it would undoubtedly render a future political solution to the Palestinian issue ever more difficult.

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And it is only a political solution that can finally end the Arab-Israeli conflict. Military victories can never offer more than short term solutions. What is needed is a meeting of minds and a willingness to compromise so that both sides can claim they have won something – rather than the current situation where lives and resources are being destroyed at an appalling rate.

If there is one thing that President Biden should have done on his brief trip to the region last week it was to impress upon Israel the absolute necessity of avoiding yet another land invasion and occupation of the Gaza Strip. Every ounce of American influence should have been used to this end – even if it was to mean cutting off all military aid to the Israeli defence forces (currently running at $4 billion annually). That clearly has not been done; indeed a proposal for an extra $14 billion in aid has just been submitted for congressional approval.

The only conclusion is that the US is continuing to take a one-sided approach to the conflict and – despite being the only country capable of influencing Israel in any material sense – has clearly forsaken the opportunity to act as a genuine mediator or peace-maker.

The prospects for a peaceful settlement to the dispute are accordingly very grim. In the short term it is essential that not only must a ground invasion be avoided but there must be a call for a complete ceasefire. Enough innocent people have been slaughtered already on both sides, and the daily bombardment of bombs and rockets is simply adding enormously to the civilian death toll.

All hostages must then be released since to detain them without cause is itself a war crime.

Finally – eventually – there must be a comprehensive settlement.

For more than 30 years now the two-state solution which emerged from the Oslo Accords has been seen as the answer to this long-running conflict; it could well have been successful if it had been implemented fully and honestly. Regrettably, for all intents and purposes, this concept of two states no longer seems to be feasible.

Indeed, it can be argued that Israel never really wanted to implement the full terms of the Oslo agreement. From the very beginning the building of Jewish settlements throughout the West Bank was increased rapidly rather than halted; and the 2005 evacuation of settlements in Gaza was carried out in a way that completely discredited the Palestinian Authority in the eyes of the local population, and left the way open for the ill-fated violent takeover of the Gaza Strip by Hamas.

Perhaps what both sides may now have to consider is the viability of a single democratic state in all the territory of historic Palestine, with equal rights for all its citizens and cast-iron guarantees for the two dominant communities. This will not be easy to achieve but the only alternatives on offer would appear to be the total subjection – if not annihilation – of one side by the other.

The Gaza Strip itself may appear to be an unimportant piece of territory in global terms, but the longstanding and abject failure to achieve a just and comprehensive settlement to the Palestinian question will continue to pose a grave risk to international peace and security unless resolved. The current horrific crisis in Gaza might just offer the opportunity to achieve this objective. Similar to our own peace process in Northern Ireland, a massive leap of faith would be required from both sides.

Niall Holohan was the Irish government’s Representative to the Palestinian Authority from 2002 to 2006. He retired as Ambassador to Saudi Arabia in 2014.